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Synthesis &
Synthesis Extended:

Less Risk, More Reward

Synthesis & Synthesis Extended were released in November 2020 to offer an improved model and Asian Handicap betting.

The term ‘synthesis’ describes the combination of elements of components to create a connected whole. At Mercurius, we felt it was also the perfect name for releasing a different way to trade football matches. Synthesis and Synthesis Extended are our brand-new trading strategies. They provide:

  • A high Return on Capital (ROC)
  • More bets than previous models
  • Significantly higher strike rates
  • Higher turnover
  • Improved RoMad

Both strategies achieve this while ensuring volatility remains relatively low. They represent yet another significant step towards the Mercurius goal of transforming sports betting into a reliable, long-term investment. The Synthesis duo adds Asian Handicap bets to the mix, which helps increase the win rate and reduce losing streak length.

Five Years to Synthesis Success

We previously described Dynamo XG as a happy accident. However, this term doesn’t apply to either Synthesis or Synthesis Extended. It results from 5 years’ worth of work and trial and error.

With a more precise handle on fair odds, the Synthesis models are among the best on the market for finding value bets. Here’s a quick overview of what each one can do.

Synthesis

  • 864% ROC
  • This equates to over 41% per annum
  • Between 250 and 300 wagers a year
  • Average odds of 2.98
  • A win rate of over 44%.
  • A total yield of 13.47%
  • The lowest annual return was 20.58% in 2018

Synthesis Extended

  • 961% ROC
  • Equivalent to over 44% per annum
  • Between 300 and 350 wagers a year
  • Average odds of 3.21
  • A win rate of over 41%
  • A total yield of 12.27%
  • The lowest annual return was 15.1% in 2018

The significant increase in bets due to Asian Handicap wagers' addition means both Synthesis and Synthesis Extended provide a much higher ROC than even DynamoXG and PhoeniXG offered.

Why Add Asian Handicaps?

The Asian Handicap bet is the weapon of choice for successful professional bettors. With just two outcomes, the level of bookmaker edge is reduced. Finding value bets without the right tools continues to evade the reach of most bettors. However, Synthesis and Synthesis Extended do so effortlessly.

These Asian Handicap bets are typically available at lower odds, which means a higher chance of winning. This practice helps diversify your portfolio and reduce volatility.

The popularity of Asian Handicap bets also ensures greater liquidity on the market. This enables the bots to find value quickly and easily.

Both options are an Ensemble Model, which is a model created from models. In this instance, we merged the PhoeniXG and DynamoXG models. This has created a more linear and reliable performance because:

  • Each model is individually better at discounting certain pieces of information. A combination of models eliminates more noise.
  • Each model is also guilty of a certain degree of bias. Combining models reduces bias and increases prediction accuracy.
  • This ensemble model contributes to a better reading of fair odds.

Synthesis vs. Synthesis Extended: What’s the Difference?

Here’s a quick side-by-side comparison, along with data from DynamoXG and PhoeniXG.

Metric PhoeniXG DynamoXG Synthesis Synthesis Extended
Return on Capital 295% 379% 846% 961%
Annualised Return on Capital 27.23% 35.75% 41.3% 44.52%
Yearly Volatility 23.12% 36.98% 27.40% 31.80%
Average Monthly Return 2.30% 3.05% 3.6% 3.98%
Average Monthly Volatility 6.63% 11.41% 9.3% 11.35%
Number of Bets 766 1695 1646 2077
Yield 17.1% 9.04% 13.8% 12%
Average Odds 3.79 4.06 2.95 3.21
Strike Rate 37.73% 33.92% 44.53% 41.6%
Average Turnover 1.2 2.97 2.86 3.73
RoMad 1.044 0.955 1.13 1.1
Max Drawdown -17.99% -31.01% -27.3% -33%

With Synthesis, you get better:

  • Stability
  • Yield
  • Strike rate
  • RoMad
  • Maximum Drawdown

Synthesis’ higher win rate, lower volatility, and greater RoMad make it ideal for those with a slightly lower risk profile.

Annualized ROC in units 41.45
Yield 13.47%
Average odds 2.98
Strike rate 44.29%
Tot bets 1682
Bets to recover 129

With Synthesis Extended, you benefit from improved:

  • ROC
  • Monthly Return
  • Number of Wagers
  • Average turnover

Synthesis Extended’s bigger ROC, monthly return, and overall profit means it is a solid option for individuals happy to take a little more risk for greater reward.

Annualized ROC in units 44.52
Yield 12.27%
Average odds 3.21
Strike rate 41.60%
Tot bets 2077
Bets to recover 176

Which One is Better?

The short answer is ‘neither.’ Both strategies use the same model when looking for value bets. You don’t receive better odds by using one or the other; you get great odds with both.

The slight difference in performance only occurs because the models provide bets on different leagues. Any added element of risk boils down to the new bets and leagues added. For example, there is potentially more or less risk associated with backing the home team in Russia. The trading metrics that yield long-term profit remain the same, however.

League Home Draw Away AH Home AH Away
EPL Both   Both Both  
Bundesliga Both   Both Both  
La Liga Both     Both  
Serie A ITA          
Ligue 1 Extended       Both
Primeira Liga Both        
Championship ENG          
Eredivisie Both     Both  
Jupiler League          
Premier League RUS Extended        
Allsvenskan          
Eliteserien          
China SL Both        
Serie A BRA          
Superliga          

For instance, fans of France’s Ligue 1 or the Russian Premier League may prefer Synthesis Extended because it includes bets on the home team.

We only focus on leagues with a positive RoMad, a decision we feel will keep profits high and shorten losing streaks.

Unlike Synthesis, Synthesis Extended includes positive RoMad leagues which have sustained periods of negative RoMad in the past. However, this has NOT hindered its overall positive statistical significance.

The Future is Synthesis & We Extend an Invitation to Interested Parties!

Do you want:

  • More wins?
  • Greater profit?
  • Relatively low volatility?
  • More Action?

If so, Synthesis and Synthesis Extended is where you need to focus. It brings Asian Handicaps on board to provide clients with a genuine alternative investment.

Existing customers don’t have to do anything! Those who use PhoeniXG or DynamoXG automatically benefit from the upgrade. The model is slightly different, and our testing say it is better. During the changeover:

  • PhoeniXG users get switched to Synthesis
  • DynamoXG users get switched to Synthesis Extended

There is no ‘luck’ involved in sports betting. Success takes patience, time, and a whole lot of research. The Mercurius team has invested all of this on your behalf. Now it is time for everyone to reap the rewards with a model capable of generating consistent, long-term profits.